Always Awake.
Always Watching Your Back.
Your AI trading assistant that never sleeps. 4 base models + 1 meta-learner working together to protect your capital and find your edge.
Vigil caught the bear market before it hit. Will you be ready for the next one?
Create Free Account →What Vigil Sees Right Now
Delayed snapshot. Create a free account to see model status.
🔒 Sign up free to see more details
Last updated: --
What You'll Receive
Real signals. Real data. Delivered to Telegram and Discord in seconds.
Live Performance
Two sources of truth: rigorous backtesting and real paper trading. Both transparent.
Methodology: Walk-forward cross-validation — the model trains on past data and is tested on future data it has never seen, simulating real trading conditions. Think of it as a "time machine test" that prevents the model from cheating by peeking at future prices. Tested on BTC/USD hourly data from Gemini exchange, Jan 2013 – April 2026 (107,936 candles). Includes 0.1% slippage + 0.35% Gemini taker fee on every trade. 5-fold temporal splits for XGBoost, 3-fold for LSTM/RF/Transformer.
Test period: Nov 1, 2021 – Dec 31, 2022 (14 months). BTC fell from $68,601 to $15,643. On a $10,000 starting portfolio, buy-and-hold would have ended at ~$2,700. Vigil's ensemble was bearish on 97.2% of the 10,124 hourly candles, blocked all entries, and preserved the full $10,000. The bear bounce detector also identified 64 flash crash opportunities (5%+ drops with RSI below 30) with a 53% win rate using 3% take-profit / 3% stop-loss.
⚠️ Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtest results may not reflect real trading conditions. Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk of loss.
How Vigil Works
4 base models + 1 meta-learner. One mission: watch the market so you don't have to.
Vigil Watches
Every hour, Vigil analyzes 13+ years of real BTC price data from Gemini exchange — over 107,000 data points across 14 market indicators.
Models Vote
4 different AI models each make their own prediction independently. A 5th "referee" model combines their votes into one clear signal. When they all agree, you know it's serious.
You Get Alerted
You receive a signal with the exact entry price, stop-loss, take-profit levels, and a confidence score showing how much the models agree — delivered to Telegram or Discord in seconds.
See BUY/SELL signals, regime detection, and model agreement directly on a live BTC chart.
Sign up to access →The Ensemble
🌲 XGBoost v2
Spots trends in technical indicators. Great at finding patterns in structured data.
🧠 LSTM v1
Remembers price sequences. Understands that what happened in the last 24 hours matters.
🌳 Random Forest v1
200 decision trees voting together. Reduces the chance of any single model being wrong.
⚡ Transformer v1
The same AI architecture behind ChatGPT, adapted for price prediction. Finds complex patterns.
🎯 Meta-Learner (the 5th model)
A LogisticRegression model that learns which base models to trust in which conditions. It combines all 4 votes into one calibrated probability — the final signal you receive.
All models are tested using "walk-forward" validation — meaning they're trained on past data and tested on future data they've never seen, just like real trading. This prevents overfitting (the #1 reason most trading bots fail in production).
📊 Interactive Vigil Chart
See BUY/SELL signals, bear regime detection, and model agreement directly on a live BTC chart.
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade when Vigil earns your trust.
Observer
- BTC sentiment direction (1h delay)
- Basic performance dashboard
- Bear regime alerts
- Basic chart (delayed data)
- Exact probabilities
- Model agreement scores
- SL/TP levels
- Altcoin trade signals
- Full interactive chart
Sentinel
- Real-time BTC signals with exact probabilities
- Model agreement score
- SL/TP levels on every signal
- Full interactive chart with live price
- Multi-timeframe analysis (1H/4H/1D)
- BTC funding rate data
- Altcoin signals (BTC ensemble-gated)
- Telegram + Discord delivery
- Bear bounce trade alerts
- Export to TradingView
- REST API access
- Model attribution analytics
Guardian
- Everything in Sentinel
- Full chart + API data export
- REST API access
- Model attribution analytics
- Kelly sizing parameters
- Full on-chain data (flows, whale tx)
- Feature drift reports
- Shadow log analytics
- Priority support
Guardian-level access, forever. Limited to the first 50 members.
Reserve Your Spot →The ML ensemble is trained on BTC data. Altcoin signals (ETH, SOL, etc.) use technical indicators gated by the BTC ensemble — when the ensemble is bearish, altcoin entries are blocked. This BTC-first approach protects capital across all assets during downturns.
Built by an Engineer, Not a Guru
No hype. No guaranteed returns. Just rigorous ML and transparent results.
Vigil is built by a software engineer with professional experience in cloud infrastructure and machine learning at AWS. Unlike signal groups that rely on gut feeling, Vigil uses a 4+1 model stacking ensemble — the same approach used by quantitative hedge funds, but made accessible for retail traders.
Every signal includes a model agreement score so you can see exactly how confident the system is. When models disagree, Vigil tightens stop-losses to protect you. When they all agree strongly, it lets winners run. During extreme bear conditions, Vigil automatically closes positions — because sometimes the best trade is no trade.
We publish performance transparently, including losses. If Vigil underperforms, you'll know. That's how trust is built.
☁️ AWS Infrastructure
Production systems at scale
🤖 Machine Learning
Ensemble methods, walk-forward CV
📊 Quantitative Trading
Backtesting, risk management, slippage modeling
🔒 Security First
Encrypted secrets, JWT auth, audit logging
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
- Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk of loss. You may lose some or all of your invested capital.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Signals are for informational purposes only.
- Vigil does not provide financial advice, investment advice, or recommendations to buy or sell.
- ML models can and do produce incorrect predictions. Market conditions change.
- Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always use stop-loss orders.
- You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
Let Vigil Watch Your Back
Create a free account. Early subscribers get special pricing.
Create Free Account →Free Observer tier. No credit card required.
⚠️ Vigil is not a registered investment advisor. All content is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.