Always Awake.
Always Watching Your Back.
Vigil is a trade permission system. 8 AI models vote every hour. If they don't agree it's safe — you don't enter.
Institutional-Grade AI. Retail-Friendly Pricing. Built by an AWS AI/ML leader and former NASA engineer.
Start Watching Free →The Power of Staying Sidelined
Most signal services are always "on." Vigil knows when to say nothing.
When 8 models can't agree it's safe to enter, the smartest move is no move. Every "always-on" signal bot was generating trades during the 2022 crash — all the way down from $68K to $15K. Vigil blocked every single entry.
The math: Lose 50% and you need a 100% gain just to break even. Lose 0% and you're ready to deploy the moment conditions improve. Protecting capital during bear regimes is just as valuable as finding gains in bull regimes.
Live Regime Detection
This is real. Updated every hour. No login required to see the verdict.
🔒 8 models are voting right now. Sign up free to see what happens when they agree.
See what a BUY signal looks like →Last updated: --
What Vigil Did This Week
When conditions change and the models align, subscribers are the first to know.
What You'll Receive
Real signals. Real data. Delivered to Telegram and Discord in seconds.
Live Performance
Two sources of truth: rigorous backtesting and real paper trading. Both transparent.
679+ regime calls. 67% directional accuracy (24h). BTC dropped 25% — Vigil called STAY OUT the entire time. Every call publicly verifiable.
View Full Track Record →Methodology: Walk-forward cross-validation — the model trains on past data and is tested on future data it has never seen, simulating real trading conditions. The accuracy metric measures the meta-learner's out-of-fold prediction accuracy using a ±0.5% threshold (ignoring small, noise-like price movements). Tested on BTC/USD hourly data from Gemini exchange, Jan 2013 – April 2026 (107,936 candles). Includes 0.1% slippage + 0.35% Gemini taker fee on every trade. 5-fold temporal splits for XGBoost, 3-fold for LSTM/RF/Transformer.
Test period: Nov 1, 2021 – Dec 31, 2022 (14 months). BTC fell from $68,601 to $15,643. On a $10,000 starting portfolio, buy-and-hold would have ended at ~$2,700. Vigil's ensemble was bearish on 97.2% of the 10,124 hourly candles, blocked all entries, and preserved the full $10,000 by staying in cash. Vigil doesn't short — it protects capital by sitting out when conditions are dangerous. The bear bounce detector also identified 64 flash crash opportunities (5%+ drops with RSI below 30) with a 53% win rate using 3% take-profit / 3% stop-loss.
⚠️ Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtest results may not reflect real trading conditions. Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk of loss.
5 Layers Before Every Trade
Most bots buy on a single indicator. Vigil requires 5 checks to pass before risking a dollar.
The result: fewer trades, but each one has passed 5 independent checks. That's how you protect capital.
How Vigil Works
8 models + 1 meta-learner. One mission: watch the market so you don't have to.
Vigil Watches
Every hour, Vigil scans 13+ years of real BTC price data — over 107,000 data points. It looks at price momentum, market volatility, trading volume, and dozens of other signals that most traders miss.
Models Agree
8 AI models analyze the data independently. Two separate teams of models must agree on the direction before Vigil acts. Think of it like getting a second opinion — when both teams say the same thing, the signal is much stronger.
You Get Alerted
You receive a clear signal: BUY, SELL, or STAY OUT — with the entry price, stop-loss, take-profit, and a confidence score. Delivered to Telegram or Discord in seconds.
See BUY/SELL signals, regime detection, and model agreement directly on a live BTC chart.
Sign up to access →The Ensemble
Two independent model teams generate signals. A separate crash protection layer only steps in during genuine danger — like the 2022 crash.
Signal Generation (Primary) v4
Two model teams look at different things. When both point the same way, that's a high-confidence signal.
📊 Model A — Momentum & Trend
Watches where price has been going and how fast. Trained on 44 features across 3 volatility regimes. Catches trends early.
🔬 Model B — Market Behavior
Watches how traders are actually behaving — buying pressure, selling pressure, and volatility patterns. Sees things Model A can't.
Tested on truly unseen data from July 2024 – April 2026. When both model teams agree, accuracy jumps significantly.
Crash Protection (Safety Net)
4 additional models watch for genuine danger. They don't generate signals — they only step in to pause everything when a real crash is happening.
During the 2022 crash, these models detected the danger and preserved 100% of capital while buy-and-hold lost 73%. They only veto when all 4 agree AND price confirms a structural crash. Otherwise, the signal layer drives.
All models use strict out-of-sample validation — trained on past data and tested on future data they've never seen. This prevents overfitting (the #1 reason most trading bots fail in production).
📊 Interactive Vigil Chart
See BUY/SELL signals, bear regime detection, and model agreement directly on a live BTC chart.
Free Weekly Market Report
Get Vigil's ensemble regime analysis delivered to your inbox every Monday. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade when Vigil earns your trust.
Observer
- BTC sentiment direction (1h delay)
- Basic performance dashboard
- Bear regime alerts
- Basic chart (delayed data)
- Exact probabilities
- Model agreement scores
- SL/TP levels
- Altcoin trade signals
- Full interactive chart
Sentinel
- Real-time BTC signals with exact probabilities
- Model agreement score
- SL/TP levels on every signal
- Full interactive chart with live price
- Multi-timeframe analysis (1H/4H/1D)
- BTC funding rate data
- Altcoin signals (BTC ensemble-gated)
- Telegram + Discord delivery
- Bear bounce trade alerts
- Export to TradingView
- REST API access
- Model attribution analytics
Guardian
- Everything in Sentinel
- Full chart + API data export
- REST API access
- Model attribution analytics
- Kelly sizing parameters
- Full on-chain data (flows, whale tx)
- Feature drift reports
- Shadow log analytics
- Direct access to founder for deep-dives
- Priority support
Guardian-level access, forever. Limited availability.
Reserve Your Spot →The ML ensemble is trained on BTC data. Altcoin signals use technical indicators gated by the BTC ensemble — when the ensemble is bearish, altcoin entries are blocked. This BTC-first approach protects capital across all assets during downturns.
25 assets monitored across 3 categories:
Blue Chips: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, DOT, UNI, LTC, ATOM, AAVE
Mid-Cap: FIL, SUI, INJ, FET, SHIB, PEPE
DeFi/L2: ARB, OP, LDO, IMX, APE
For Developers & Institutions
Integrate Vigil's regime detection directly into your trading systems, DeFi protocols, or risk dashboards via REST API.
Real-Time Regime API
Market regime classification, risk scores, and per-asset signals via REST + WebSocket.
OAuth2 + Rate Limiting
Client credentials flow, JWT tokens, Redis sliding-window rate limits. Production-grade auth.
25 Crypto + Equity
BTC, ETH, SOL, and 22 more crypto assets plus equity tickers. All with regime-conditional ML.
Register free → test the API → upgrade via POST /api/v1/billing/checkout when ready. Instant activation.
Used by DeFi protocols for automated risk management. Prop desks for regime-aware position sizing.
Built by an Engineer, Not a Guru
Institutional-grade AI, retail-friendly pricing. Rigorous ML and transparent results — no hype, no guaranteed returns.
I'm an AWS Engagement Manager who delivers AI and machine learning solutions to Fortune 500 companies, and a former NASA engineer. I've applied the same engineering rigor used in enterprise AI and mission-critical aerospace systems to every line of Vigil's code.
At Vigil, there is no marketing department to fluff the numbers and no sales team to hype the results. There is only the code, the models, and the data. I built this because I wanted a tool that met my own engineering standards — and now I'm sharing it with you.
Every signal includes a model agreement score so you can see exactly how confident the system is. When models disagree, Vigil tightens stop-losses to protect you. When they all agree strongly, it lets winners run. During extreme bear conditions, Vigil pauses signals — because sometimes the best trade is no trade.
I publish performance transparently, including losses. If Vigil underperforms, you'll know. That's how trust is built.
☁️ AWS AI/ML Delivery
Delivers AI/ML solutions to Fortune 500 companies
🚀 NASA Engineering
Former NASA engineer — mission-critical systems thinking
🤖 Quantitative Trading
Ensemble methods, walk-forward CV, slippage modeling
🔒 Security First
Encrypted secrets, JWT auth, audit logging
How Vigil Makes Decisions
Frequently Asked Questions
Straight answers to the questions traders actually ask.
Does Vigil trade for me?
Vigil sends you signals — entry price, stop-loss, take-profit, and confidence level — delivered to Telegram or Discord in seconds. You decide whether to act on them. We don't have access to your exchange account or funds.
What exchanges are supported?
Vigil's signals work with any exchange that supports the assets we monitor. Our data comes from Gemini and Coinbase. You can execute trades on whichever exchange you prefer.
What's the typical holding period?
It varies by market conditions. In trending markets, trades can last hours to days with profit scaling (50% at TP1, 25% at TP2, trailing stop on the rest). During extreme bear markets, Vigil pauses signals — sometimes the best trade is no trade. Bear bounce trades (flash crash recoveries) have a 48-hour maximum hold.
How is the 19.6 Sharpe Ratio possible?
The Sharpe ratio is calculated on hourly backtest data using walk-forward cross-validation predictions, which naturally produces higher values than daily or monthly calculations (more data points = smoother returns curve). The 87.9% accuracy uses a ±0.5% threshold, meaning it only counts predictions on meaningful price moves — not noise. These are training validation metrics from the Layer 1 crash protection models. Our newer Layer 2 regime-conditional models are validated on a strict out-of-sample test set (July 2024 – April 2026) that was never seen during training, achieving 55% accuracy in medium-volatility and 64% in high-volatility conditions. We're transparent about methodology because honest numbers build more trust than inflated claims.
Which altcoins do you monitor?
25 assets across three categories: 12 blue chips (ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, DOT, UNI, LTC, ATOM, AAVE), 6 mid-caps (FIL, SUI, INJ, FET, SHIB, PEPE), and 5 DeFi/L2 tokens (ARB, OP, LDO, IMX, APE). All altcoin signals are gated by the BTC ensemble — when BTC is bearish, altcoin entries are blocked to protect capital.
What is volatility regime detection?
Vigil classifies the current market into three volatility regimes: low, medium, and high. Each regime has its own specialized models because the features that predict price direction in calm markets are different from those in volatile markets. In low-volatility conditions (price barely moving), no model has a reliable edge — so Vigil stays cautious. In medium and high volatility, Vigil's v4 dual-model agreement system uses two independent model sets — one focused on momentum and trend, the other on market microstructure and volatility. When both model sets agree on direction, the signal confidence is highest (65.5% accuracy in high-vol, AUC 0.812 on strong agreement). This agreement-based approach reduces false signals because two independent perspectives must align before Vigil acts with full confidence.
How does Vigil decide when to trade?
Every potential trade must pass 5 independent checks: (1) the ML models must not be bearish, (2) if it's an altcoin, BTC must not be bearish either, (3) the signal must be strong enough, (4) it must be the single best opportunity available, and (5) there must be no crash-level danger. Most of the time, Vigil is waiting — and that's by design. Fewer trades with higher conviction beats many trades with weak signals.
Does Vigil short or use leverage?
No. Vigil is long-only with no leverage. During bear markets, it preserves capital by staying in cash — not by shorting. This is a deliberate design choice: shorting adds complexity and risk that most retail traders don't need.
Can I try it before paying?
Yes. The Observer tier is free forever — no credit card required. You get BTC sentiment direction (1-hour delayed), bear regime alerts, a basic chart, and the performance dashboard. Upgrade to Sentinel when you're ready for real-time signals.
⚠️ Risk Disclosure
- Trading cryptocurrency involves substantial risk of loss. You may lose some or all of your invested capital.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Signals are for informational purposes only.
- Vigil does not provide financial advice, investment advice, or recommendations to buy or sell.
- ML models can and do produce incorrect predictions. Market conditions change.
- Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always use stop-loss orders.
- You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
Let Vigil Watch Your Back
Free forever for BTC signals. Upgrade later if you want altcoins and Telegram alerts.
Create Free Account →Free Observer tier. No credit card required.
⚠️ Vigil is not a registered investment advisor. All content is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.